The 2024 Oscars are upon us, and once again I’m making my best guesses for who will take home some of the night’s biggest awards. I loved so many of the nominated movies this year, I’d be happy with a number of different outcomes. So here’s what I think is going to happen on Hollywood’s biggest night:

Best Picture

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Past Lives
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Should Win: This has been such a great year for movies that there’s only one of these nominees that I just didn’t like. Almost any of these would be a worthy winner – Barbie became a phenomenon, Past Lives is a quietly stunning portrait of love and what ifs, The Holdovers is a throwback to classic 70s movies and is full of warmth and humor, and The Zone of Interest is a deeply unsettling window into the lives of people who oversaw one of the worst genocides in history. It’s clear these nominees offer a wide range of moods, stories, and feelings. But there’s one that has turned into a juggernaut that hasn’t been beat yet.

Will Win: All aboard the Oppenheimer train. Not only is this movie an incredible achievement in its own right, but its relationship with Barbie turned a three-hour long historical biopic drama into a blockbuster. It deserves all the success it’s achieved. 

Best Director

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Should Win: Again, this is a pretty phenomenal line up of director nominees. Of course, there is the glaring omission of Greta Gerwig for Barbie (and I would also have thrown in Celine Song for Past Lives). But all these directors had a clear and unique vision for their movies.

Will Win: It’s Christopher Nolan’s year – he deserves this win after all these years and for making Oppenheimer a dense, thoughtful, but accessible and successful blockbuster.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Should Win: I adored The Holdovers, and a lot of my feelings toward that movie come down to the three central performances. Paul Giamatti is delightfully cranky in this role and is able to show the layers of emotion behind his oversized persona. He’s really the only other major contender in this category, one that deserves to be celebrated.

Will Win: But again, Oppenheimer seems poised to take this category as well. And Cillian Murphy 100% deserves it. To be able to stay at the center of a three-hour epic and make Oppenheimer feel like a three-dimensional and complex person is extraordinary. You literally can’t look away from his face any time he’s on screen.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Should Win: And now we come to the one true remaining race for this year’s Oscars. Sandra Huller is incredible in Anatomy of a Fall, but Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone are neck-and-neck in this category. Their performances are so different – Emma is loud, over the top, and incredibly physical in her performance, while Lily is quiet, often restrained and physically still in her role yet has a fire in her eyes that burns with emotion and power. They’re both incredibly deserving, and I would be happy with either of them taking this home.

Will Win: I’m putting my money on Lily Gladstone. I also think the historical meaning behind her win would be truly rewarding.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Should Win: I honestly think we’re somehow glossing over Robert De Niro in this category. He’s always played complicated characters, but he’s so effortlessly insidious in Killers of the Flower Moon. He’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing, the snake in the garden, and the movie doesn’t work without him. And then there’s Ryan Gosling. I’ve watched Barbie four times already and every single line Gosling performs as Ken is still the funniest thing I’ve ever heard in my life. Comedy performances are rarely recognized by the Academy, and Ken is an all-timer.

Will Win: I’ll give you one guess. In one of the easiest predictions, Robert Downey Jr. is taking this home for his role in Oppenheimer. And it is remarkable to see him act on this level and stretch his talent after more than a decade playing Tony Stark in the MCU. The man’s still got it.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Should Win: Again, these are all solid performances, and each has their moment to shine, like America Ferrera’s famous Barbie monologue, but there’s really no contest here.

Will Win: Shockingly, this won’t be going to Oppenheimer. Instead Da’Vine Joy Randolph will continue her hot streak for her moving performance in The Holdovers. She injects a warmth and emotional depth into the movie that compliments the chaos of the dynamic between Paul Giamatti and Dominic Sessa. She’s wonderful.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Should Win: With Greta Gerwig not being nominated for Best Director, I would love for her and Noah Baumbach to win this screenplay award. And it would be well-deserved! Their vision for Barbie and the journeys both Barbie and Ken go on in this movie would have been a disaster in anyone else’s hands. They made a Barbie movie that spoke to millions of people and made a billion dollars.

Will Win: There’s a non-zero chance that American Fiction wins here, and it’s another excellent screenplay, but I’m willing to bet the Oppenheimer train will roll strong and pick up this award as well.

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Should Win: Obviously I love The Holdovers, and its ability to delve deep into its characters through the simplicity of its story with winning humor is outstanding. And Past Lives is still my favorite movie of the year, and the story is incredibly engrossing and push and pull between the central relationships is stunning to watch.

Will Win: This award is most likely going to Anatomy of a Fall. It’s a French courtroom drama and the way the information is delivered bit by bit keeps you guessing throughout the entire runtime. There’s a particular reveal toward the end that is presented in such a shocking and unique way. And the way this movie portrays the French court system is astonishing.

Best Animated Feature Film

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Should Win: This is another two-horse race, but I do want to shout out Nimona, which is a zany fantasy/sci-fi adventure story about acceptance. It has a unique animation style and just deserves a lot of love. But this category is clearly down to The Boy and The Heron, Hayao Miyazaki’s supposedly final film, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, the second in Sony’s groundbreaking Spider-Man trilogy. Both were in my top five favorites of the year and the award could easily go to either of them. My heart says The Boy and the Heron should win…

Will Win: …but my head says Spider-Man will come out on top. The series already has a strong record with the Academy, with the first Spider-Verse movie also taking home this award.